MTI Internship: Shadow Routes: Russia’s New Trade Geography

Americas and Central Asia Division (ACA) - Shadow Routes: Russia’s New Trade Geography and Singapore’s Opportunities

Summary When Russia was cut off from the West, its trade did not stop but rerouted. This internship follows those detours: tracing how sanctions are rewriting Russia’s trade map, creating new winners from Kazakhstan to Türkiye, and redrawing corridors like the Middle Corridor and the International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC). You will help turn sanctions, shipping routes, and trade data into geostrategic insight, and distil what all this means for Singapore’s companies, traders, and policymakers. Project Overview Western sanctions since 2022 have constrained Russia’s access to Western markets, finance, and technology. In response, Russia has accelerated efforts to (i) reorient trade and logistics routes towards non-Western partners; (ii) deepen economic ties with neighbours and friendly economies (e.g. in Eurasia, the Middle East, and Asia); and develop and utilise alternative transport and payment corridors (e.g. International North–South Transport Corridor and Arctic Sea Route). These shifts are generating second-order effects. At the macro level, Russia’s trade structure is changing. Indirect beneficiaries and new corridors are emerging, as economies position themselves as intermediaries, transhipment hubs, or alternative suppliers. Sectoral and regional dynamics in Central Asia, the Caucasus, Türkiye and related regions are being reshaped, with some sectors expanding and others exposed to new risks. This project will therefore analyse how Russia’s overall trade structure and partner mix have evolved post-sanctions; identify indirect beneficiaries and key corridors that channel Russia-related trade; and examine sectoral and regional impacts in neighbouring economies. Finally, the project will draw out how all these shifts relate to Singapore’s trade, investment, and connectivity interests. Key Questions You Will Help Answer 1. Where is Russia’s trade going? Track how Russia’s exports and imports have shifted by sector, partner and route. Identify which changes matter most for energy, commodities and shipping flows that touch Singapore. 2. Who’s benefitting and through which routes? Identify key intermediaries (e.g. Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Türkiye, Gulf states) gaining from Russia-related trade. Map how corridors like the Middle Corridor and INSTC are evolving, and how they compete with or complement traditional sea routes relevant to Singapore. 3. Where are the real opportunities and risks? Zoom into sectors (energy, metals, agriculture, logistics/services) and regions (Central Asia, Caucasus, Türkiye). Spot where new value chains are forming and where Singapore-based firms could plug in — and where sanctions and reputational risks are highest 4. What should Singapore do? Synthesizing the information above, propose recommendations for how Singapore should act (or not act) to capitalise on these trends to best push for our interests. What You Will Work On You will work like a trade analyst helping to shape real-world policy thinking. Desk Research and Data Collection • Compile trade and macroeconomic data from sources such as UN Comtrade, IMF, World Bank, Russian Customs, and national statistics of key neighbours. • Map sanctions timelines and summarise key policy and regulatory developments in sanctioning and non-sanctioning countries that condition trade flows. Macro Trade Reorientation Analysis • Build time-series datasets of Russia’s trade flows by sector, partner, and route. • Identify major shifts in partner composition and product mix pre- vs post-sanctions. • Highlight trends most relevant to Singapore (e.g. energy, commodities, maritime trade, services flows). Indirect Beneficiaries and Corridor Mapping • Identify economies showing significant increases in Russia-related or Russia-adjacent trade. • Map key corridors (e.g. Middle Corridor, INSTC, Black Sea/Gulf routes), their nodes, and traffic trends. • Assess constraints (infrastructure, regulatory, political) and potential for further development, including implications for global shipping flows relative to Singapore. Sectoral and Regional Case Studies • Select a small number of priority sectors (e.g. energy and oil products, gas/pipelines, metals, agriculture/food, logistics/services) and priority regions (e.g. Kazakhstan/Central Asia, Azerbaijan–Georgia/South Caucasus, Türkiye). • For each, examine how trade diversion and corridor development are reshaping sectoral growth, investment, and policy choices. • Draw out where Singapore-based firms or institutions may have a comparative advantage. Regional and Geopolitical Contextualisation • Situate the findings within broader developments involving the Eurasian Economic Union, BRICS+, SCO, and other relevant groupings. • Analyse how these institutions and alignments may reinforce or constrain the trade and corridor patterns observed. Scenario Planning and drafting recommendations • Develop 2–3 plausible 3–5 year scenarios for Russia’s external economic orientation (e.g. deeper Eurasian pivot, partial normalisation, prolonged fragmentation). • For each scenario, integrate insights from macro trade, corridors, and sectoral/regional analysis to identify opportunities, risks, and strategic options for Singapore. What You Will Learn • Build hands-on experience with trade data (e.g. UN Comtrade) and turn raw numbers into meaningful visuals and narratives. • Learn how sanctions and geopolitics actually change trade patterns and connectivity on the ground. • Practice corridor and connectivity analysis in terms of routes, hubs and chokepoints. • Develop sectoral and country case study skills across Central Asia, the Caucasus, Türkiye and Russia. • Train your ability to write clear, concise, policy-relevant insights and recommendations for a small, open, highly exposed economy like Singapore. • Get a taste of scenario planning: thinking beyond “what is happening now” to “what if this continues / escalates / normalises?”.

This project is suited for candidates who: • Study economics, international relations, public policy, business, or related fields. • Comfortable working with data and charts, and curious about what they mean. • Like connecting the dots between news headlines, numbers, and policy choices. • Interested to develop the skills to handle complex, real-world geoeconomic issues. Prior experience in policy work or international relations is helpful but not essential. Interest and a willingness to learn is far more important.